| Imagine a remote--and unique--island
populated by 2,000 children, half girls,
half boys. As they grow older they pair and have children. By
age 30 they
have had 2,000 children--half girls, half boys--and have no
more. The
island's birth rate is 2.0 (2,000 children
divided by 1,000 women) and its
population is 4,000.
Imagine the second generation of 2,000 children pair and
have children. By
age 30 they have had 2,000 children and have no more. The
island's birth
rate remains 2.0 and its population is 6,000.
Imagine the third generation pair and have children and the
first generation
begins dying at the same rate a fourth generation is born.
For each birth
there is a death. For each death, there is a birth. The population
of our
imaginary island remains stable at 6,000.
Now, imagine an island similar to the one described in the
first three
paragraphs. However, on this island, people live 30 years
longer than they
live on the island described above. In other words, unlike
the first island
where the first generation is dying as the fourth generation
is being born,
on this second island, the first generation lives until a
fifth generation is
born. On such an island, population would stabilize at 8,000.
In other
words, as life spans increase, population stabilization occurs
at a higher
level.
In the U.S. increasing life span is not a major factor in
our increasing population--today net immigration plays the
major role. However, in some developing countries, improved
sanitation, diets, and health care dramatically increase life
spans which in turn lead, for a time, to increasing population.
We want people to live longer, healthier lives. At the same
time, we must understand the role of life span as we learn
about population growth--as we Think Population!
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